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  1. #1
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    Long, But Interesting Read

    The below may be slightly incorrect,
    but it is correct in the spirit of things to happen in the future.

    The transition from the horse to the "nosy, unreliable horseless carriage"
    looked much like where we are today.

    Cheaper, smaller batteries with better range and power will seal the deal!
    An electric car race at the Indy 500 will not happen as they are too quiet!


    Auto repair shops will go away.
    A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20.
    Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by
    dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.
    Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a
    regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor
    malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto
    wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out
    comes your car with a new electric motor!


    Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense
    electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in
    fact, they’ve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts
    locations.


    Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start
    building new plants that only build electric cars.

    Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling
    for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!

    Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use
    and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to
    industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla
    roof?


    A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

    The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

    In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
    Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
    bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?


    What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10
    years and, most people don't see it coming.

    Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on
    film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these
    days?


    Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000
    pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential
    technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way
    superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen
    again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
    electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and
    jobs.


    Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial
    Revolution

    Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the
    next 5-10 years.

    UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
    biggest taxi company in the world!
    Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

    Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
    properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

    Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the
    world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than
    expected.


    In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson,
    you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within
    seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So,
    if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the
    future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.


    Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human
    nurses.

    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than
    humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

    Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2
    years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a
    car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
    location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you
    will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.
    The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will
    never own a car.


    This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can
    transform former parking spaces into parks.

    1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted
    or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous
    driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a
    million lives plus worldwide each year.


    Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car
    companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
    while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach
    and build a computer on wheels.


    Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in
    their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or
    hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.


    Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so
    they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That
    was unheard of, only a few years ago.


    Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will
    become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
    disappear.


    Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will
    move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighborhood.

    Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all
    new cars will run on electricity.
    Cities will have much cleaner air as well. (Can we start in Los Angeles,
    please?)

    Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

    Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see
    the burgeoning impact. And it’s just getting ramped up.

    Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
    competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue -
    technology will take care of that strategy.


    Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who
    will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works
    with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you
    breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify
    nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for
    health purposes.


    WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it actually arrived a few years ago.


  2. #2
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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    I googled the first paragraph. This has been making the rounds of the internet for a couple of years. I suspect it goes back even further.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    I predict that like all such predictions it will miss the mark pretty far. Something totally unexpected will come along and replace all those ideas. How many years (including this one) have personal flying cars been predicted?

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    Might be older but a lot of truth in my mind. One of our vehicles is a Chevy Bolt all electric. It’s fantastic. 200 + range. Service schedule is essentially rotate tires and replace air cabin filter. It’s got a lot of torque. The market doesn’t currently offer electric solutions for everyone but the change is rapid. This can be a divisive topic so I don’t mean to stir any pot.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    ATT predicted a lot of common changes we see today 25 years ago in an ad campaign they had on TV. CBS Saturday Morning show did a story about it this morning: https://www.cbs.com/shows/cbs_this_m...ey-expect-now/

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    A lot of these type of predictions are generated by people who fail to take into account the effect of politicians and lobbyists, not to mention world events. Newtons's Law concerning action & reaction often applies to the marketplace as well. Yes, we will see major changes in the way we all live in the next few years, but many of the powers that be and big corporations will have to be behind them instead of thwarting them. Think about how automobile fuel mileage has waxed and waned with the pressures put on the car manufacturers by Washington or petroleum production.
    Every new solution often creates an unthought of problem. States complain that electric cars rob them of fuel taxes to maintain roads. This, in turn places pressure on politicians to find new sources of revenue to maintain infrastructure. It's a never-ending cycle.
    WHAT BOX?

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    We have an appointment this month with a representative of "Solarize Floyd" - a county wide initiative to increase solar power. Not sure yet what they'll propose, but it should be interesting.
    I don't believe in Astrology. I'm a Sagittarius and we're skeptical.

    "May the grain be with you" - Roy Underhill

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    Quote Originally Posted by Gotcha6 View Post
    A lot of these type of predictions are generated by people who fail to take into account the effect of politicians and lobbyists, not to mention world events. Newtons's Law concerning action & reaction often applies to the marketplace as well. Yes, we will see major changes in the way we all live in the next few years, but many of the powers that be and big corporations will have to be behind them instead of thwarting them. Think about how automobile fuel mileage has waxed and waned with the pressures put on the car manufacturers by Washington or petroleum production.
    Every new solution often creates an unthought of problem. States complain that electric cars rob them of fuel taxes to maintain roads. This, in turn places pressure on politicians to find new sources of revenue to maintain infrastructure. It's a never-ending cycle.
    Electric cars are a prime example of the toxic mix of politics, manufacturers and utilities. Manufacturers, excepting Tesla, have been fighting the government's demands that they build more electric cars for years. I looked into why it was so difficult to find many electric cars here in NC earlier this year and why so many models were only available in California. The answer is pretty simple. Politicians vs manufacturers. About the only reason any electric cars are being built by the mainline companies is because the government is forcing them and no one forces them more than California. So, what electric cars are being built by the big 3 are mostly going to California. It is NOT consumer demand that is causing electric cars to be built, it is politics and as usual politics is being driven by lobbiests and special interst groups.

    Utilities get into the mix because switching over to electric vehicles will inevitably increase the demand for electricity on an already overloaded grid. The same people who are demanding electric cars are against allowing more nuclear power plants as well as conventional fuel power plants. As long as electric vehicles are a small novelty it's ok, but at the consumer level having an electric vehicle in every garage will increase power consumption without any corresponding reduction in other current demands.

    It's always been interesting to me that the loudest proponents of electric vehicles seem to always make their arguments as if the whole population of this country are city dwellers in the NYC meaning and no one lives in the suburbs or country where getting around pretty much requires a vehicle. They also ignore the movement of goods. I don't see anyone suggesting that the trucking industry be switched to electric vehicles or that it is even possible to do so.

    As far as autonomous vehicles go, they all rely on computer programming and speaking as a ex-professional software developer with over 40 years of experience I'm not so anxious to put my life in the hands of other programmers. It's a profession where bugs are simply a fact of life. Just look at how often your software needs updates. (Not throwing any rocks here, but look at the state of this site, NCWW.) There have already been a number of incidents where autonomous vehicles have been involved in bad accidents due to software bugs.

    If there was an affordable electric pickup truck I'd jump on it, but I don't even see one of those on the drawing boards. As an exercise for the reader, figure out why there don't seem to be any full size electric pickup trucks in the works.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    Fully Electric Ford F-150 Could Take On The Tesla Pickup
    OCT 2 BY MARTIN BIGG INTERVIEW
    Ford’s executive chairman has teased the possibility of a pure electric Ford F-150 at the 100th anniversary of the Ford Motor Rouge complex.
    We already knew a hybrid F-150 was coming, but now Ford has hinted that a fully electric version of the popular pickup could eventually enter production. As reported by Green Car Congress, the Blue Oval company’s executive chairman Bill Ford discussed the future of the F-150 at the 100th anniversary of the Ford Motor Rouge complex in Dearborn, confirming that the hybrid version has been given the green light and will launch in 2020.


    "[The 2020 Ford F-150 Hybrid is] going to be a truck that takes you farther without sacrificing power and a truck that helps you do more when you get there, with electricity for everything from your tools to your camping gear," he said at the event. To the surprise of attendees, he then teased the possibility of a pure electric F-150.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    One thing I saw in there that is wrong. The part about a baby seeing a personal car in a museum. At the rate things are going in the field, museums will no longer exist at that point. People are less interested in museums today then they were before and with the amount of information easily acqired and different ways to find entertainment that will only continue. I'm 45 and have been in over 20 years and I should be fine but those coming out of grad school with Museum Study masters now may be in trouble. Museums are tranistioning from objects in display cases to experiences. With no objects you don't need climate control, maintenance or conservators. So even if the museum is still around, the car won't be in it. Just a picture of one in holographic form that they can read in their mind.
    Last edited by Richo B; 01-06-2019 at 03:07 PM.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    Quote Originally Posted by Charlie View Post
    Fully Electric Ford F-150 Could Take On The Tesla Pickup
    OCT 2 BY MARTIN BIGG INTERVIEW
    Ford’s executive chairman has teased the possibility of a pure electric Ford F-150 at the 100th anniversary of the Ford Motor Rouge complex.
    We already knew a hybrid F-150 was coming, but now Ford has hinted that a fully electric version of the popular pickup could eventually enter production. As reported by Green Car Congress, the Blue Oval company’s executive chairman Bill Ford discussed the future of the F-150 at the 100th anniversary of the Ford Motor Rouge complex in Dearborn, confirming that the hybrid version has been given the green light and will launch in 2020.


    "[The 2020 Ford F-150 Hybrid is] going to be a truck that takes you farther without sacrificing power and a truck that helps you do more when you get there, with electricity for everything from your tools to your camping gear," he said at the event. To the surprise of attendees, he then teased the possibility of a pure electric F-150.
    Thanks, I (obviously) hadn't heard about that one. Remains to be seen if it really does go into production and become available outside of California though.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    We are certainly in a period of rapid change but most of the change is occurring in how we communicate, not how we transport ourselves and our goods. When I started to work, there were no cell phones. Once I got in the car to get somewhere, I could not be found until I arrived. There were no internet blogs. There was no internet. No Google. Lots of changes in a brief period of time. The changes will continue to come but I do not think our transportation and other aspects of our lives will change nearly as quickly or completely as described.

    Solar energy is popular but a bad way to make electricity. It is expensive and is used only because of subsidies. They like to claim they are about the same price as nuclear but that ignores their terrible capacity factor (ratio of energy produced versus what would have been produced if you operated all the time at full capacity). Solar is typically around 15% and nuclear is routinely over 90%. In addition, in heating loads and some other loads, the time solar is unavailable is when it is needed most. Storage only further kills the cost side of the equation. It is OK to play with but it is not a good technology to depend on. Germany is about to prove it to the world. There is a good authoritative paper written by German college professors detailing why their policy will not work. Wind is no better in most ways than solar.

    Electric cars are dependent on battery technology and a way to recharge on a trip. If battery technology further improves and if there is readily available charging, they may become practical. But those are big iffs. Electric motors are relatively cheap and reliable but batteries are far from cheap. Replacement of a battery pack will currently pay for an internal combustion engine overhaul - which are a lot less necessary than ever before. Electric cars are another technology that is currently dependent on governmental subsidies. We need to be skeptical of any technology that cannot "pay it's own way". Take away the subsidy and it will die.

    But computerization of our lives will continue. We like it.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    Quote Originally Posted by Charlie View Post
    The below may be slightly incorrect,
    but it is correct in the spirit of things to happen in the future.

    The transition from the horse to the "nosy, unreliable horseless carriage"
    looked much like where we are today.

    Cheaper, smaller batteries with better range and power will seal the deal!
    An electric car race at the Indy 500 will not happen as they are too quiet!


    Auto repair shops will go away.
    A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20.
    Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by
    dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.
    Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a
    regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor
    malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto
    wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out
    comes your car with a new electric motor!


    Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense
    electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in
    fact, they’ve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts
    locations.


    Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start
    building new plants that only build electric cars.

    Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling
    for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!

    Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use
    and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to
    industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla
    roof?


    A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

    The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

    In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
    Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
    bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?


    What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10
    years and, most people don't see it coming.

    Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on
    film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these
    days?


    Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000
    pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential
    technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way
    superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen
    again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
    electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and
    jobs.


    Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial
    Revolution

    Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the
    next 5-10 years.

    UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
    biggest taxi company in the world!
    Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

    Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
    properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

    Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the
    world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than
    expected.


    In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson,
    you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within
    seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So,
    if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the
    future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.


    Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human
    nurses.

    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than
    humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

    Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2
    years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a
    car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
    location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you
    will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.
    The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will
    never own a car.


    This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can
    transform former parking spaces into parks.

    1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted
    or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous
    driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a
    million lives plus worldwide each year.


    Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car
    companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
    while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach
    and build a computer on wheels.


    Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in
    their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or
    hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.


    Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so
    they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That
    was unheard of, only a few years ago.


    Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will
    become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
    disappear.


    Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will
    move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighborhood.

    Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all
    new cars will run on electricity.
    Cities will have much cleaner air as well. (Can we start in Los Angeles,
    please?)

    Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

    Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see
    the burgeoning impact. And it’s just getting ramped up.

    Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
    competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue -
    technology will take care of that strategy.


    Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who
    will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works
    with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you
    breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify
    nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for
    health purposes.


    WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it actually arrived a few years ago.
    Wow! Was this written in Colorado? because someone was smoking some really good stuff that wrote this! Obviously not a realistic thinking technical person....

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    Some situations come to mind like the people who live in very remote locations; it would be impractical to provide electrical service or recharging stations in most of Alaska, or in our remote mountain and desert areas. The need for internal combustion engines will continue for our military for certain. If a group of terrorists were to shoot up some electrical booster stations and bring down the entire grid, we would be totally crippled without internal combustion engines. If one of our adversaries should attack us with EMB's, (ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE BOMBS) we would be thrown into total chaos as almost everything would become incapacitated. Internal combustion engines would once again become our only sources of power, except for a very few oxen and horses. These are dark thoughts, but must be taken into account in today's and tomorrow's worlds.
    Experience is a hard teacher; she gives the test first, and the lesson later.

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    Re: Long, But Interesting Read

    My personal theory is that cars will likely shift to a mild hybrid model instead of an all electric. Having the braking generate power improves efficiency and with computer control should be able to be unnoticable to the driver. That would involve essentially putting a small motor at the wheels, however. They you decide how big a battery you want - how much storage. But you keep a gas motor for long distances/flexibility in operation. With enough storage, you could be similar to a full electric but with the ability to take a long trip.

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