Shrinking Activity on NCWW

[SteveColes]

Go ahead an start a thread in the Admins and Moderators with your information and include my go ahead to help the BoD

Since we started this site, I routinely ran a series of statistics to see if the site was growing. When I was made an admin again, I ran the same set of statistics again and found some surprises:elvis: and not good ones:no:

I ran 3 queries against our databases and then exported the data into excel spreadsheets. In the spreadsheets, I created graphs and than did some "curve fitting" of the data (called trendlines by excel, regression analysis on some calculators and !@#^%%@%* by statistics students in the 60's when we didn't have calculators).

The choices I made about aggregating by QTR or which curve fit to use was based on all my previous inspecting this data and finding what seemed to expose the generalized info for simple analysis.

So here is the data from the founding of the site through through the end of 2011

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One of the things that can be seen immediately, even without trendlines, is that all three measurements are showing activity levels back at 2007 levels. We can also see That most things seemed to peak around the end of 2009. And finally if you extend the trendlines, you can see going down very quickly. No, I don't think things will go down as quick as the trend lines, but I am sure without some very high priority changes, we won't last much more than 18 months or so.

Now, with the intro done, it's time to get down to the core of what this thread should be about. What's wrong and what to do about it? Since I started this thread, I get the floor first:rotflm:.

I don't think there is a single cause but rather a multitude of causes. Some direct and some indirect. But I do think they are part of, or the result of, one general issue. "resting on our laurels". I think that we have been guilty of feeling that we have made the site and Corporation a success. Therefore, there isn't much to do or changes. And with that there has been a loss of enthusiasm and energy. I leave it to others to suggest what we need to do to change that both as an attitude and some direct actions.

On the technical front I would like to address our website. It really hasn't had a change in look since 2006. It feels stale and unexciting, known but dull. In the past, we talked about vb4 or some other software, but nothing has happened. Tracy has made it a staff to do, but it won't happen if most of the staff isn't willing to help or at least be patient. Once we do it, we can then add the new capabilities that would be open.

There are a host of new capabilities that we could add onto VB4 or many other packages that would make our site more exciting to readers and contributors alike.

I will post in a few days, how the vb4 upgrade and the adding of new capabilities would probably have to proceed. It could be mildly painful, but it has to be done.

Anyway, back to the more general topic. People, please express yourself. if we get enough discussion and ideas flowing, then the BOD will have a decent starting place to make decisions.

Thanks for listening
​

 

[SteveColes]

Oops, here is a download file that contains the sql queries and the excel spreasheets that I used to generate the stats and graphs. If you want to, you can play with it, for "what ifs". For instance you can change the trend line from a 2 order polynomial to 4th order polynomial and really get get depressed. Or use a linear fit and see that everything is wonderful and you can ignore the issue:rotflm:

 

[b4man]

Steve, thank you for building these graphs and all the work it takes to complete such a task.

One of the first questions that comes to mind regarding staff and their much needed participation in making site changes and upgrades has to do with how it was done way back in the beginning. How did you form what has to be the best tech bunch anywhere? Do you think having the( sort of) central location for most of you was an asset to communicating and implementing?

It's just a start.

 

[SteveColes]

Steve, thank you for building these graphs and all the work it takes to complete such a task.

One of the first questions that comes to mind regarding staff and their much needed participation in making site changes and upgrades has to do with how it was done way back in the beginning. How did you form what has to be the best tech bunch anywhere? Do you think having the( sort of) central location for most of you was an asset to communicating and implementing?

It's just a start.

How was it done before? Well for those updates that were as complicated as this one will be, I hope it will be like what I will suggest in another thread that I'll start later.

But as far as "best tech bunch ever". That wasn't what we had before. That's what we have now. No I am not trying to "kiss ***" (not my style), it is just the truth. Bas, Jim, Chad as a group are capable of doing anything that needs to be done or that I can think they might have to do. The question is do they have the time, willingness, and commitment to get this done. I've been told they may not have the time.:dontknow: I can't speak for willingness and commitment.

As far as the the past, we had very little technical expertise, but most of the people who were drafted:gar-La;, volunteered, or were nominated wanted to help very much. Most had no skills, but they had a willingness and a commitment that was more than enough to get us going and keep us going.

There was Monty who was a surgeon and had much less computer knowledge than he thought he had.:gar-La; The was DL Ames, who was the CSM of one of the Special Forces units at Bragg. There was DaveO, who reluctantly taught himself enough to be a major help with most of the things that could be done and still found time to be the heart & soul of this site in many ways. Not to mention Rob, Scott, and many others whose names escape me at the moment

One of things that I feel was important, was that all staff members not just techies learned to use as much of the AdminCP. as possible. When we first started doing that, people were afraid that they would make a mistake and hurt something. The response was "So what?" you can't learn without trying, and if you try, you will make mistakes. And if you do, then we'll fix it. This site is NOT running the space station. If every once in a while the site is down for a short while, so what?

ScottM, I'm not trying to pick on you. Your name pop'd up in my head because this just happened the other day. You posted for an event to placed in the "upcoming events" box. I know you knew how to do that, because you've done it before. But an atmosphere of only certain people doing certain things seems to have arisen. When this site was at is peak of getting technical things done 2005 -2008. it was because everyone was expected to help and most did. I suspect we need to start to foster that ideal again.

As for distance from each other? Yes it helped, but it could have been done many other ways.

 

[ScottM]

How was it done before? Well for those updates that were as complicated as this one will be, I hope it will be like what I will suggest in another thread that I'll start later.

But as far as "best tech bunch ever". That wasn't what we had before. That's what we have now. No I am not trying to "kiss ***" (not my style), it is just the truth. Bas, Jim, Chad as a group are capable of doing anything that needs to be done or that I can think they might have to do. The question is do they have the time, willingness, and commitment to get this done. I've been told they may not have the time.:dontknow: I can't speak for willingness and commitment.

As far as the the past, we had very little technical expertise, but most of the people who were drafted:gar-La;, volunteered, or were nominated wanted to help very much. Most had no skills, but they had a willingness and a commitment that was more than enough to get us going and keep us going.

There was Monty who was a surgeon and had much less computer knowledge than he thought he had.:gar-La; The was DL Ames, who was the CSM of one of the Special Forces units at Bragg. There was DaveO, who reluctantly taught himself enough to be a major help with most of the things that could be done and still found time to be the heart & soul of this site in many ways. Not to mention Rob, Scott, and many others whose names escape me at the moment

One of things that I feel was important, was that all staff members not just techies learned to use as much of the AdminCP. as possible. When we first started doing that, people were afraid that they would make a mistake and hurt something. The response was "So what?" you can't learn without trying, and if you try, you will make mistakes. And if you do, then we'll fix it. This site is NOT running the space station. If every once in a while the site is down for a short while, so what?

ScottM, I'm not trying to pick on you. Your name pop'd up in my head because this just happened the other day. You posted for an event to placed in the "upcoming events" box. I know you knew how to do that, because you've done it before. But an atmosphere of only certain people doing certain things seems to have arisen. When this site was at is peak of getting technical things done 2005 -2008. it was because everyone was expected to help and most did. I suspect we need to start to foster that ideal again.

As for distance from each other? Yes it helped, but it could have been done many other ways.

I love you too Steve. LOL. Pick all you want if it helps. :wsmile:

Right or wrong we have changed over the years. I think the results are mixed but mostly good. The need to create roles and responsibility grew out of us coming to age and creating an elected BoD. We quickly learned you can't have more then one webmaster or one events director, etc. We had folks, all with great intentions, tripping over each other. At that point we started to setup who handles what. I think there is still a need for an established process with set roles but I am happy to work it anyway that is best for the site.

 

[b4man]

In order to get fresh blood into the admin body, like adding a "pint" PRN, what's the best course? Ask our very amazing staff of technical wizards to consider mentoring others of their own choosing? Call another shout out as I remember you doing a few years back for some new and hard working talent with a willingness to learn? Start a thread of possible members based on who we know and what we think they might could offer?

 

[Sully]

Do we need to do anything?

Just playing devil's advocate here, but how does our activity levels, and the apparent trends, compare with other online forums. Is there a social (or socioeconomic) variable at play here that has nothing to do with the website or woodworking in NC per se?

I certainly agree that we should always strive to do good PR for NCWWer and maintain an up to date look and feel (upgrade the website), but I'm not going to get worried about activity trends. The driving force here should be a desire to [continue to] serve as an educational conduit rather than a reaction to perceived loss of activity.

Just my $0.02 and I'm happy to try to help anyway I can.
J

 

[Bas]

I fully agree activity is declining, and I think it's cause for concern. We don't need to grow, but shrinking is bad. I agree with Jay that the economic woes over the past few years haven't helped. Many people have had to cut back on their hobby, moved away, taken a second job etc.

Giving the site a fresh look will help attract more people, and keep the regulars coming back more too. The use of Social media has expanded dramatically, and we haven't really kept pace. Even though a lot of members say they're not big into Facebook etc., the truth is that the platform isn't important. It's the collaboration.

For me personally, the biggest problem is time. This won't be a permanent thing, but right now free hours are extremely short in supply. I also find it difficult to get excited over doing more computer stuff when I've just spent 10-12 hours behind the monitor. Plus my butt can't take sitting that long anymore.

 

[Douglas Robinson]

I have thought about this issue a lot over the last 24 hours. Thanks for bringing it up Steve.

While Steve focused on the possible and likely technical side/causes of this decline, I think a broader review is called for.

Just like any other organization there is always going to be an ebb and flow of people to and from the membership. However, I think we are not doing enough to keep things fresh. Yes the look and feel of the site should be updated and a plan should be made to do it on a regular basis. In addition we need to do this on the personal side.

When was the last time we added a new event? We do the Klingspor shows, hold the picnic, run two raffles and two donation drives. To new members that looks great. To old members, it is a "been there, done that" situation. When was the last crawl? When was the last time we did something different? nOw admittedly I may not remember some events, but my point is NCWW needs to be less static and more dynamic. IF we don't do that we risk simply becoming a bookmark on most members browsers.

Why not try to contact some manufacturers, like LN, Frued or someone else and arrange a NCWW workshop with them? I tried but put too much on my plate to arrange opportunities for NCWW'ers to help returning/ injured veterans with home modifications or home construction. What have we done to meet our education mandate?

I know how much work is required of the BoD and this is not meant as a critisism. Each BoD member is authorized to create a committee to achieve their responsibilities. I do think more can be done to be more visible to the membership. I found being involved in the day-to-day operation of NCWW I was not aware that the general membership had no idea of what was happening. That is why I started making regular President's messages.

I guess my point is that I do not feel we can rest on our heels. We need to make NCWW dynamic and continually try new things. Not all will succeed, but these are the kinds of things that will keep us growing and thriving. Perhaps we can have a meeting/ hold an on-line discussion for newer woodworkers about considerations that shouls be considered when first setting up a shop, and other topics like that.

I hope I have not offended anyone, but NCWW is important to me so I thought I would throw my 2 cents out there.

Doug

 

[toolman]

Doug

I believe you may have hit the nail on the head... :thumbs_up:thumbs_up:thumbs_up:thumbs_up:thumbs_up

I can help get Vb 4 up and running.. I have been waiting for a long time..

 

[froglips]

I've also been in deep thought about this.

These stats are not new. Bas and I pulled this about a a year ago. The decline is palpable.

Speaking only for myself, I burnt out a while back. I was averaging 6 hours a day working on the site back in 2009/2010.

Organizing shop crawls, running the new member chat, myriad technical fixes and new features (forms, infractions, BoD voting/ballot, rotating banner/ads, viruses, etc).

I over committed myself and burnt. (Not the first nor the last time in my life I'm sure).

But enough about me.

I felt, and feel, the decline is not a technical issue.

We excel at "new to the hobby" and fall short on "retaining and expanding" once someone has setup a shop.

You can see hints of this in HOW, Bill Clemmons/Mike Davis Classes, Scott Miller Scrolling, Raleigh Pen Turners, Jerome Bias tours and more. Folks want more and are creating it.

Not to mention a lack of tie ins with TWA, WNCWW and other active clubs and schools (both public and woodworking). More work with the stores, sawyers and vendors.

Were you to ask me what to do, my answer is two fold.

First, the site needs a "visionary leader". Not a Board member nor a tech monkey. Someone who is the face of NCWW. An evangelist. I think of positions such as Executive Director or the Mayor of Hillsborough.

Second, we need a defined roadmap. I think our mission statement is spot on. But we are not working off of an actionable plan.

Those are my thoughts, for what they are worth.

Jim