COVID 19

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sawman101

Bruce Swanson
Corporate Member
COVID 19 REPORT--DAY 6
Beth came down with a head cold 6 days ago and had a temp of 99.9; I took her to see her Dr. There is a Rapid C 19 test that takes only 20 minutes for the result, but is costly compared to the free testing--fortunately her medical insurance covered it--she tested positive. She was informed she must quarantine for 10 days from the onset of symptoms. However, I must quarantine for 14 days from time of being exposed to someone who has tested positive, therefore I'm quarantined until Thursday the 29th. It's complicated, as some like to say. At any rate, Neither I nor Beth, nor any of our friends are suffering hardly any discomfort other than we would feel from a cold. I have yet to be convinced of the dangers of the C 19 virus. Yes, it is dangerous for those folks who are already sufferings from other illnesses that have compromised their immune systems, but I truly wonder how many folks have been hospitalized because of C 19 only; I also wonder how many deaths were from C 19, or were they from some other illness but tested positive for C 19. It is said statistics don't lie, but I think they can be very misleading. For instance, there is the case of the lady who wallowed in self pity--she sold her duplex house to her daughter on land contract. The lady was going to move to a senior living apartment complex, but after the legal papers were completed, she announced that she decided not to move and would continue to live in the downstairs apartment and pay $150.00 a month rent. It had been the daughter's plan to rent that unit for $250 per month. The payment on the 15 year mortgage at .06% on $30,000 was something like $375 (please don't quote me or do the math, this is just an example). After about 2 years the daughter decided she had to raise the rent as she was losing too much money, so the rent was raised to $175 per month. At this her mother went into total meltdown and began accusing her daughter of being a crook and a con artist--she blabbed this throughout the village and their church. Her explanation was, "She is charging me $175 per month and only pays me $200 per month on the mortgage. Definitely sounded like the daughter was ripping her mother off, but mother refused to pay the $175 so the daughter just paid her the difference between the rent and the mortgage--statistics don't lie, but they can really distort the truth.
So how bad is the C 19 at this time? I'll keep you posted as to how we're doing.
 

Martin Roper

Martin
Senior User
I think the infection rate is much higher than reported. There is a high percentage of people who have no symptoms at all, and would therefore have no reason to be tested, and another high percentage with mild symptoms who might shrug it off as a cold and also not get tested. It will be interesting to see in a few years, once all the data is collated, how many people have antibodies for the virus.
 

lspooz

Larry
Corporate Member
As a full-time pediatrician for more than 25 years, in terms of your comment
" I have yet to be convinced of the dangers of the C 19 virus. Yes, it is dangerous for those folks who are already sufferings from other illnesses that have compromised their immune systems, but I truly wonder how many folks have been hospitalized because of C 19 only; I also wonder how many deaths were from C 19, or were they from some other illness but tested positive for C 19. It is said statistics don't lie, but I think they can be very misleading."

Worldwide evidence-based medical researchs show it is more dangerous than seasonal influenza, but the most particularly serious dangers arise from 1: unpredictability on a person-to-person basis (I know of previously healthy teens who've wound up on ventilators)
2: prolonged hospital stays clog up ICU beds and lead to overwhelmed hospitals with no room for heart attack/stroke/complex surgery & motor vehicle collision victims
Also MANY COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths have been missed (as complications of other illnesses, lack of testing availability, and in some countries from overwhelming the healthcare system). I still trust Dr. Fauci on strict use of masks, distancing, cleaning, and getting a flu shot this Fall
 

chris_goris

Chris
Senior User
Im nearly certain I had this thing back in January. It started in a cold/flu like , temperature, body aches and headache that went up and down for about 5 days, all the while I had a dry cough, the cough was really bad because I would cough so hard and nothing would come up and made the headache that much worse. . Once these symptoms wore off, at about day 5 or 6, the cough really got heavy in my chest, very sluggish labored breathing. After about 3 days of this it started to loosen and after about 10 days total it had moved along completely. I havent had any flu in over 20 years either.
 

Raymond

Raymond
Staff member
Corporate Member
Bruce, my prayers and well wishes go out to you and your wife and hope for a complete and rapid recovery.

However, I too, believe the COVID-19 is truly under-reported due to its symptoms and we still don't fully know its impact on those with underlying conditions. I trust the scientist and medical researchers who are giving this disease all of their attention trying to come up with a cure. It is far more beneficial to heed the warnings than to just ignore them because of a little discomfort from wearing a mask and standing 6-10 feet apart to talk.
 

NOTW

Notw
Senior User
Statistics can be made to tell whatever story you want them to. Being in the business world for many years I have listened to finance managers tell the story of how great we are doing all while all of the numbers are in the red, it's all in how you spin it.
 

SabertoothBunny

SabertoothBunny
Corporate Member
99% of the people who have caught it or reported to have caught it have lived. That should say everything.

May you are your wife have a speedy recovery to full health. Quarantine is frustrating and its questionable effectiveness doesn't help being cooper up. Keep your head up, you will come out on the other side.
 

JimD

Jim
Senior User
I think we need to take precautions including wearing masks. I forgot mine at Walmart today and went back to the truck and got it before anybody said anything. I didn't like that but I think it's the right thing to do. I am 64 with no condition that would increase risk other than my age and I have type 0 blood. So I am not afraid of getting it but I would not want to unknowingly have it and transmit it to somebody who got really sick.

Our church is being very cautious with lots of cleaning and social distancing and mask wearing but the senior pastor, music pastor, and maybe 10% of the congregation got it about a month ago. The senior pastor is 40 and said he just felt like he had no energy. No other symptoms. The music minister is much older and a lot heavier and his wife got it too. But they came through fine. My Sunday school teacher is about 10 years older than me and got it along with his wife. She got over it fine, he spent a couple days in the hospital when his oxygen got too low. But he is fine now. One of the best tenors in the choir got it and died, however. He may have delayed going to see the doctor, that is what I heard from somebody who knew Bill better. He was quite heavy and older, not sure exactly how old. Also don't know him well enough to know about other risk factors.

From what we know now, I think we let the infectious disease experts scare us into shutting things down. That hurts people too and is still hurting them. Not just economically. Some people do not handle isolation well and others do not handle the economic impact on their families well. On the other hand, we struggled to protect our vulnerable elderly adequately. We did not start wearing masks as early as we should have. We should have reopened schools quicker and more completely. My daughter in law is a teacher and she is challenged by all the types of classes she has to prepare for and teach. Children, we know now, were the least likely to have ill effects. But they may not social distance well and some will probably not wear masks well. And we have to think of the teachers too. There is a range of ages in the teaching staff and a variety of situations with respect to risk conditions. Overwhelming hospitals was a risk but from everything I read it has either not happened or only happened very locally and briefly. Better managing spread with masks and social distancing would seem to have addressed it without shutting things down. But we did not know this early.

It needs a good "lessons learned" discussion before the next virus outbreak. Those of us who have reason to believe our outcome would be OK even if we get it have to consider our possible impact on others and still take reasonable preventative measures. At least that is my opinion. Inconveniences for everybody to protect the 1% or so that could die seems like the right thing to do.
 

Jeff

New User
Jeff
Trump says "bah humbug, it's all a hoax and the scientists don't know what they're doing. Fauci is a quack!"

That says volumes about a real health threat.
 

JimD

Jim
Senior User
I don't think that is quite what Trump says. He spent several days in the hospital and got treatments we could not get to get over it as quick as he did. But he has said he regrets shutting things down. He has both praised and criticized Fauci.
 

drw

Donn
Corporate Member
Bruce, I am so sorry learn that Beth has tested positive and that you both now must deal with the whole quarantine routine; I hope both of you do not experience any significant symptoms! That said, COVID is a very dangerous disease. Why the disease impacts some with serious complications and others with hardly a symptom is unknown. I think smoking is a very unhealthy practice, but not all smokers experience serious healthy issues, but we probably all know of those that have. (Forgive me, I realize that my example is an imperfect comparison, but at the moment it was all I could come up with).
 

Gotcha6

Dennis
Staff member
Corporate Member
I'm in a vaccine study group, so I'm watching this carefully. I've been reading reports of people recovering from the initial symptoms only to find out their heart muscle had been compromised, among other things. Bruce, I believe you are wise to take every precaution you can. Although the country (and the world) are wearying of this situation, I'm afraid the experts are right, and we should brace for another wave worse than the first two. My mother is at a Skilled Care Facility in CLT. They had about 5 cases on campus this summer and had begun to open up her facility to family visits with precautions. Staff is tested weekly and residents monthly per CDC guidelines. They announced another shutdown because they now have 18 employee and 1 resident cases over the last 2 weeks.
I read a book this spring when this started up that was published some years ago about the 1918 pandemic. The government is following the actions taken then almost to the letter, only the public didn't know or weren't told the potential severity of it.
They were in a wartime environment and didn't want to let the Axis powers know their military and civilian populations were being compromised. Doctors warned Generals that troop ships wouldn't arrive in France or England with nearly as many soldiers as they set out with. It spread worldwide, and is responsible for the collapse of the last major offensive attempted by the German Army. Woodrow Wilson is believed to have contracted it just prior to the Versailles Treaty Talks, affecting his personality to the point that he completely reversed his opinions regarding German war reparations.
Philadelphia is the biggest debacle that was had. They had a parade to promote Liberty Bonds, despite the warnings of the health officials, resulting in 12,000 deaths. Does this all sound familiar? Sturgis, anyone? Before it's over, I fear everyone in this country will know of someone personally that it will kill or permanently compromise. We can only wear the masks, distance, wash, and hope.
 
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tri4sale

Daniel
Corporate Member
99% of the people who have caught it or reported to have caught it have lived. That should say everything.

Double check your math:

NC Deaths 3961
NC Infections 246,000
Death Rate: 1.61%

US Deaths 220,000
US Infections 8,190,000
Death Rate: 2.69%

Worldwide Deaths: 1,120,000
Worldwide Infections: 40,300,000
Death Rate: 2.78%

(info per Wikipedia and NY times as of 10/19/2020)

I know 5 people who have tested positive. 2 in there 20's, one in 40's and two in their 80's. I'd like to ask all five their opinion on if it was "just the flu" as some people describe it, but 1 of them is dead, the 40 year old. The older couple, one is still complaining of dizziness, and "brain fog" as it's described and this is a month later. The younger ones are still in the active stage, so hopefully they have no long term effects.
 

Sourwould

New User
Taylor
The problem with the herd immunity approach is that the herd is usually thinned out to achieve it.
Any volunteers for that?

Many of us have been volunteered. Hard to work at home in construction and rich people's bathrooms aren't going to remodel themselves.
 

Martin Roper

Martin
Senior User
Double check your math:

NC Deaths 3961
NC Infections 246,000
Death Rate: 1.61%

US Deaths 220,000
US Infections 8,190,000
Death Rate: 2.69%

Worldwide Deaths: 1,120,000
Worldwide Infections: 40,300,000
Death Rate: 2.78%

(info per Wikipedia and NY times as of 10/19/2020)

I know 5 people who have tested positive. 2 in there 20's, one in 40's and two in their 80's. I'd like to ask all five their opinion on if it was "just the flu" as some people describe it, but 1 of them is dead, the 40 year old. The older couple, one is still complaining of dizziness, and "brain fog" as it's described and this is a month later. The younger ones are still in the active stage, so hopefully they have no long term effects.

Again, we have no idea of how many people have actually been infected but have never been tested. Without that data, all those numbers are just guesses.

Additionally, there are two types of tests, a viral test to determine if you have COVID-19 now, and an antibody test to determine if you had it in the past. The viral tests vastly outnumber antibody tests. A person could have had the viral test every three weeks since the epidemic began, yet still not know they had the virus.

Until everyone gets the antibody test there will be no way of knowing how many people have actually been infected.
 
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Gotcha6

Dennis
Staff member
Corporate Member
You're not convinced of the danger...but when was the last time 200k americans died of any one thing? WW2?
A news program tonight stated that on the current trajectory, by spring there will have been more deaths in the US from coronavirus than all the wars since 1900. Every 3 days, more Americans are dying from this than were killed in the 9/11 attacks. It is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the US.
 
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